Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents.
The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved.
Hillary Clinton (578) Have you looked at the results of these counties? Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. our Gitlab account where you can Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. 10. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics.
Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020?
Where did all the bellwether counties go? - HotAir Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. It is easy to gloss over this. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. (The highest value being again 66.1%). The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. TIP: Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. University of New Hampshire . The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. Trump won the other 18 counties. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Still, the state's worth watching. University of Denver, 2. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status.
PDF An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington).
Fact check: Trump-backed Michigan congressional candidate John - CNN Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. Watch Hampton City. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton.